ATLAS Forecaster provides the forest manager with tools to create and explore alternative forest management plans. Forest planners can determine the best management strategies for their business by creating scenarios of management options and simulating the outcomes. Silvicultural planners can implement plans correctly by having operations scheduled on time. Resource analysts can manage the yields from the forest to best meet business requirements by basing their decisions on log yields based on simulated qualities at the time of harvest.
Forecaster provides the ability to predict the impacts of site, silviculture and genetics on tree and branch growth and wood properties, and hence on wood value, internal rate of return and net present value.
Forecaster can be efficiently integrated with other parts of forest management and planning systems or it can be a convenient stand-alone application, linking to Microsoft Office applications.
Benefits and Features of ATLAS Forecaster
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Flexible reporting |
Report options can be pre-defined, so that only the information actually required by the user is generated. Standard reports and charts are available, or report tables can be saved in other formats including Excel and .csv. |
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Operations scheduled to occur at the right time. |
Silvicultural operations can be scheduled to meet specified management objectives and constraints by using appropriate growth models and functions. |
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Decisions based on using the correct models and functions. |
Appropriate combinations of functions and models can be pre-defined, simplifying the process and reducing user errors. Models available have been developed by industry research consortia as well as individual research providers and companies. Users can implement their own local functions in most cases. |
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Management options analysed for effects on yields |
Forecaster can simulate the effects of genetics, site and management on yields and quality of log products over time. |
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Future-proofing |
The underlying stem model can include more wood quality parameters as the research becomes available; site and stem properties that may be required by future models can already be included. |
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Wide range of options explored quickly and efficiently |
Forecaster can process a large number of scenarios in batch mode and the information collected can be reused and shared. Multiple scenarios can be compared simultaneously in reports. |
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Detailed modelling of silviculture |
Tree list projection allows more complex stem selection criteria for pruning and thinning to be modelled, as well as variable lift pruning and catch-up pruning. |
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Compatible with Microsoft products |
Windows-based; reports exported to Excel; uses MSDE; built on .NET technology. |
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Extensibility |
The Application Programming interface allows for complete encapsulation of Forecaster within other applications and systems in corporate systems. |
Growth Models
Growth models are a key component of any system to simulate stand growth and quality. Forecaster incorporates not only proven models which have been widely used ove rthe past 10-20 years, but also new advanced models to provide the most reliable results. The basis for projecting stand growth is modelling changes in individual stems, resulting in simulations that are closer to reality than those based on modelling stand means. Pruning and thinning can be more realistically modelled because stem selection criteria can be applied and the effect of variable lift and catch-up pruning can also be modelled. The models project not only the size of stems but also quality factors such as wood density, pruned height and DOS (diameter over stubs) of individual stems and position and size of unpruned branches. Simulations can be calibrated using actual measured distributions obtained from inventory assessments, allowing more realistic forecasts.
Scenario Testing
Decision makers need to be able to examine stand growth and yields under a range of scenarios in order to determine the best way to achieve the desired business outcomes. A scenario reflects one possible “pass through reality”, such as one crop grown on one site through one regime using one group of models or function set, and clearfelled at one age using one cutting strategy. These entities which define a scenario can be identified in a project and saved for further use, making it easy to run a wide range of scenarios in Forecaster. The information required can be entered manually or can come from other applications such as stand records. The efficiency and consistency of planning is enhanced by having the set of entities used in the project available to other users and in some cases, other applications. Multiple scenarios can be analysed by batch processing of projects set up manually or via a command line interface.
Information obtained from a simulated scenario over a full rotation can then be used as the basis for a stand-level economic evaluation. These simulation outputs including initial stocking; the number of pruned trees and their size distribution; the size and number of thinned trees; and log grade volumes and extracted piece sizes for commercial thinning and clearfell.
Silvicultural Scheduling
Scheduling silvicultural events so operations can occur at the correct time has a big impact on tree quality and hence log value at time of harvest. With Forecaster, pruning and thinning operations can be triggered by a range of stand attributes, including age, height measures and mean DOS. The use of non-age based triggers means that stands growing at different rates can still share the same regime.
Each silvicultural operation is then defined by describing how stems should be selected, the operation’s target outcome and any constraints. For example, a pruning may require the trees with the highest current pruned height to be preferentially selected, with a target pruned height to be achieved subject to a constraint on minimum green crown remaining after pruning. Other constraints may modify the timing of the event, to avoid undesirable outcomes, and multiple trigger criteria are possible, where both conditions must be met before an operation can take place.
When stored against areas in the stand record system, the silvicultural schedule will be available for budgeting, contractor management and quality control.
Yield Forecaster
Maximising the value of logs harvested in the forest is of primary concern to forest management. Forecaster uses the most up-to-date models to simulate yields of log types produced by a range of genetics, sites and management practices. The yields of different log types are now based on the same log making processes and strategies used in pre-harvest assessment tools. Quality factors such as pruning, branch size, and wood density determine which log types are possible.
Once stored in a database such as ATLAS Yield Table Manager, the yield tables produced are readily available for strategic, tactical and operational planning systems.
Requirements:
Microsoft Windows XP Professional (SP3 or later) or Windows Vista (SP1 or later) or Windows 7
512 Mb RAM; 1GHz processor.
1.5 Gb available for software installation
Microsoft SQL Server 2000 SP3 or SQL Server 2005 SP2 or SQL Server 2008 R2 Express (distributed with Forecaster)
Microsoft .Net Framework v2.0 SP2 (distributed with Forecaster)
Integration between ATLAS modules enables information from one application to be accessed or presented within another which greatly increases the power of each individual module, and the suite as a whole. Site and crop information for a Forecaster scenario can obtained from GeoMaster, and Cruiser and SilviQC can provide mean crop parameters or stem lists as simulation starting points. Yield tables produced by Forecaster can be stored in Yield Table Manager for use by ATLAS planning tools, and GeoMaster can store scheduled events for stands.
Use Forecaster for predicting the effects of site, silviculture and genetics on log quality and quantity and stand economics; add in these other ATLAS modules to efficiently and effectively undertake a wide range of tasks.
Use GeoMaster to manage information about forest area, crops and operations.
Use GeoMapper to define and generate standard maps
Use Document Manager to access documents relevant to specific forest locations.
Use Assessment Planner to generate plot location maps for assessments.
Use Cruiser to forecast yields using forest inventory assessments.
Use Yield Table Manager to manage yield tables for many users.
Use SilviQC to store and analyse data from quality control assessments.
Use FieldMan to manage field measurement programmes.
Use Harvest Manager to design and track harvest operations and to summarise yields.
Use PSP to collect permanent sample plot data
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